Phillies

/

Phillies' Alec ...

Get geared-up for the game

THE JAWN STORE

As you can see, players who have accumulated 15 or fewer home runs and 100 or more RBI in a season for the Phillies have done so 23 times. The last time it happened was when Glenn Wilson did so in 1985. The last time it happened before Wilson was before the integration of Major League Baseball. If you’re a WAR connoisseur, we can see that right now, Bohm sits at 3.4 bWAR for the season. Should accumulate a measly tenth more WAR (and sustain it) while also only getting the 15/100+, the list of players in team history that did that gets a bit smaller.

Phillies players with a 3.5 or higher WAR and at least 100 RBI and less than 15 home runs

Let’s go back to the 15/100+ idea that looks within Bohm’s reach and zoom out a bit from just the Phillies. If we’re talking more about the National League, the last time it has happened was over 20 years ago and hasn’t been all that frequent since 1940.

NL players with at least 100 RBI and less than 15 home runs

It’s not exactly what the team had in mind when drafting Bohm. Likely, they were expecting some of the raw power to come through more. The odds of his finishing with greater than 15 home runs is pretty good. After all, he only needs three more. But if he doesn’t, if he gets stuck at 15 home runs on the season and somehow manages to find 12 more runners to push across the plate, at least he’ll be able to say he’s done something that not very many people were able to accomplish.

Minor league projection is a tough science, one I try not to dabble in. For every player who, when looking at his stat line to declare him a “top prospect,” there are several prospect experts in the background wagging their finger and practicing their Lee Corso “NOT SO FAST!” impression. It’s why it is wiser to lean on those that are practiced at it to help us either buttress our opinions of a player or explain why our enthusiasm should be turned down a bit.

Every once in a while, I like to go back over old scouting reports of players that were once top prospects to see if they hit on said report. It makes things interesting to see if those that claim to be experts at their job of projecting players in the minors are in fact any good at it. One guy that I did this for was Alec Bohm since he was a top three pick in 2018 and might be considered their best hitting prospect in some time. Baseball Prospectus would be one of those experts and in 2019, the year after he was drafted, they had this to say:

Bohm was a premium college performer at Wichita State with the best combination of hit and raw power in his draft class...[s]o, the problems: Bohm is a great hitter but often prioritizes contact and shortness to the ball over fully tapping into his 7 raw.

I’d say that is fairly accurate, right? Good hitter, but the power isn’t showing up in the form of over the fence power. Baseball America, in their preview of the 2018 draft where Bohm was selected, had this to say:

With a large, 6-foot-5, 240-pound frame, Bohm brings a vast amount of strength to the batter’s box, which helps provide some of the best raw power in the country. Bohm has gotten to that power frequently this spring, hitting .353/.464/.596 through his first 36 games with eight home runs and nine doubles. Perhaps more impressive than Bohm’s power output—he also hit 11 homers as a sophomore and six as a freshman—is his improved plate discipline this season. He’s cut his strikeout rate and significantly improved his walk rate, taking the free pass more frequently than striking out for the first time in his collegiate career. He has an exceptional understanding of the strike zone and always seem to have a plan when he steps in the batter’s box, with the ability to make adjustments within an at-bat.

Again, not all that far off from the finished product that Bohm currently is. After Thursday’s game, Bohm’s season line sits at .291/.344/.462, a decent showing as far as the slugging goes, but then you look at what has actually gotten him there and the scouting reports make sense. He’s sitting on 44 doubles, two triples and 13 home runs, over the power fence gone dry.

The thing is, he’s still been productive. Nevermind the current funk he’s currently in, Bohm has earned every bit of the All Star berth he was granted by the fans. He’s been steady and good and productive all season long.

And he has a chance to make some history while doing it.

If Bohm is “able” to finish with 100 RBI while hitting 15 or fewer home runs. he will join some select Phillies company.