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Better At Battling From Behind

Coming into the season, Schwarber said he wanted to be a bit more aggressive early in counts and avoid falling into two-strike holes. Like just about ever hitter under the sun, hitting with two strikes rarely leads to success, and avoiding two-strike counts is preferable, although it can lead to more bases on balls.

In past season, Schwarber was concerned too often with trying to see a lot of pitches and draw walks. He felt it put him in early 0-2 holes that were difficult to battle out of. Last year, Schwarber found himself down 0-2 63 times and hit .113/.127/.274 for a .401 OPS. This year, he’s been in an 0-2 count 20 times, on pace for just 43 PAs, and is hitting .200/.200/.200 for a .400 OPS.

So while he’s not performing any better in 0-2 counts, he is finding himself in fewer of those pickles. But he has improved dramatically when behind in the count compared to last year.

2024 (82 PAs): .235/.232/.420, .652 OPS, 5 HRs
2023 (216 PAs): .099/.107/.231, .338 OPS, 8 HRs

That is a massive difference. Last season, when the pitcher jumped ahead of Schwarber, he was essentially an automatic out. This year, he’s been far more competitive in those at-bats, and that’s helped drive his numbers up.

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Baserunning

We also shouldn’t neglect the effect becoming the full-time designated hitter has had on his ability to stay healthy and fresh. No longer forced to patrol left field on an achy knee, Schwarber entered 2024 leaner and faster, and it’s proven itself valuable on the bases.

In 2022, Schwarber took the extra base just 23% of the time. Last year, it was 30%. This year, Schwarber has gone first-to-third or second-to-home successfully 38% of the time. The only year in his career in which that figure was higher was in 2020 as a 27-year-old for the Cubs.

With his legs under him more in 2024, he’s simply been a better hitter. You don’t need a lot of hard-hitting analysis to understand how that’s helpful.

Is this sustainable? Well, it’s a bit concerning that his BABIP of .311 is more than 100 points higher than last season’s .209 and 2022’s .240, and it’s unlikely he’ll continue to perform that much higher than the league average of .296. Usually, speedy runners who slap the ball around have higher BABIPs, and exchanging ground balls for fly balls is not generally something one would think would lead to long-term success for Schwarber.

But many of those grounders are coming when behind in the count and against lefties, exchanging lazy pop-ups and fly outs for grounders that have a chance to find a hole. So maybe there’s a tradeoff.

One thing is certain. There are 12 days left in June for Schwarber to pad these numbers even higher.

Kyle Schwarber did it again last night.

By now, everyone expects the Phillies’ unorthodox leadoff man to go on a nutso rampage of dingers once the calendar hits June, and although it wasn’t quite the blitz we’ve seen from him in past Junes for the first half of the month, Schwarber is making up ground over the last few days, particularly through their first two games against the San Diego Padres, who cannot seem to buy a series win against these Phils.

Schwarber’s blast in the 8th inning of last night’s exhilarating 4-3 come-from-behind walk-off win brought the Phillies to within one run and set up the bottom of the 9th heroics that featured four consecutive singles off Robert Suarez, with Suarez throwing just seven pitches in blowing his first save of the season.

Schwarber now has three home runs in the last two days and two multi-homer games in his last eight. He has a 1.065 slugging percentage over that stretch, and with 17 homers now this season, he’s on pace to slug 38 of them. And while he hasn’t been quite as homer-happy in 2024 as he has been his previous two seasons in Philadelphia, he is having his best overall offensive season thus far.

2024: .257/.377/.468, .845 OPS, 139 OPS+, 1.6 WAR
2023: .197/.343/.474, .817 OPS, 120 OPS+, 0.6 WAR
2022: .218/.323/.504, .827 OPS, 131 OPS+, 2.3 WAR

He’s traded him some home runs for more singles and more competitive at-bats while maintaining a consistent walk rate and strikeout rate from his previous seasons. There are a few factors at work here.

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Success Against Left-Handed Pitching

Like most left-handed hitters, Schwarber has had far more success against righties than southpaws. This year, those numbers are completely upside down.

1193 career PAs vs. lefties: .217/.332/.395, .727 OPS, 78 OPS+
127 PAs vs. lefties in ‘24: .327/.433/.505, .938 OPS, 167 OPS+, 7 HRs

Not only that, Schwarber has historically killed right-handers and struggled against left-handers, but the opposite is true this season.

3099 career PAs vs. righties: .233/.346/.525, .871 OPS, 109 OPS+
197 PAs vs. righties in ‘24: .203/.335/.424, .759 OPS, 117 OPS+

He has hit more home runs against right-handers this year, 10 of his 17, but not by a lot, with last night’s blast coming against left-handed reliever Wandy Peralta. Schwarber has 29 singles against left-handers this season, likely the result of keeping the ball on the ground rather than hitting fly balls.

Against left-handers, Schwarber is hitting grounders 51.3% of the time as opposed to just 36.4% of the time against right-handers. Is this a concerted effort not to try to do too much against left-handers and swing for the fences against righties? He’s striking out less against left-handers, 25.6% than right-handers, 29.0%. When he does hit a fly ball against a left-hander, it’s leaving the park 31.8% of the time.

It’s hard to say if this success is sustainable long-term, because a BABIP of .435 against left-handers is difficult to maintain, especially if you’re hitting the ball on the ground a ton and you don’t run well, but so far, he’s hitting them where they ain’t.